Thursday – December 2, 2021
Home borrowing costs are essentially unchanged this week and remain just above historic lows. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.11% with 0.6 in points and fees. The record low was 2.65% on January 7 of this year. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist said, “Mortgage rates continue to remain stable notwithstanding volatility in the financial markets. This low mortgage rate environment offers favorable conditions for refinancing.”
First-time unemployment claims are near lows not seen since before the shutdowns began in late March 2020. At present, there are almost 11 million jobs available across the nation. The Labor Department reports that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose 28,000 to 222,000 for the week ended November 27, 2021. Continuing claims, or those receiving benefits for at least two weeks straight, fell to 1.956 million from 2.063 million. The labor market should continue to improve with holiday hiring underway.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
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Wednesday – December 1, 2021
Home borrowing costs inched higher in the latest week and remain just above historic lows. The MBA reports that that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose seven basis points to 3.31% with 0.43 in points. Within the report it showed that the Market Composite Index fell 7.2%, the Refinance Index plunged 15% while the Purchase Index increased 5%. An MBA spokesperson said, “Home borrowing costs inched higher in the latest week and remain just above historic lows. The MBA reports that that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose four basis points to 3.24% with 0.36 in points. Within the report it showed that the Market Composite Index rose 2%, the Refinance Index was up 0.4% while the Purchase Index increased 2%.”
Private job growth saw robust hiring in November led by a big surge in the service sector. ADP Private Payrolls came in at 534,000 vs the 525,000 expected though down from 570,000 in October. The service sector added a whopping 424,000 and within that sector, leisure and hospitality added 136,000 new positions. “The labor market recovery continued to power through its challenges last month. November’s job gains bring the three month average to 543,000 monthly jobs added, a modest uptick from the job pace earlier this year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
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Tuesday – November 30, 2021
Home price gains continue to remain at frothy levels due in part to low rates, solid demand and low inventories. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 19.1% from September 2020 to September 2021, up 0.8% monthly from August to September. The National Index jumped 19.5% year over year and rose 1% monthly. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI said, “Housing prices continued to show remarkable strength in September, though the pace of price increases declined slightly.”
Consumer Confidence fell in November to 109.5 from the 111.6 seen in October which was an increase from September. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 142.5 from 145.5 last month. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, declined to 87.6 from 89.0. Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said, “The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
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Monday – November 29, 2021
Pending Home Sales rose in October after a decline in September reports the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Sales were up in each of the four major U.S. regions. Pending Home Sales Index jumped 7.5% in October but fell year-over-year by 1.4%. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. “Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
Early numbers show that Black Friday in-person sales are 28% lower compared with the same period in 2019 as shoppers move to more online buying and started shopping earlier in the season. Today’s Cyber Monday numbers will be closely watched. The National Retail Federation expects some near 63 million shoppers will purchase online for today’s Cyber Monday. The consumer remains very strong and is still willing and able to spend. “We’re expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role as it always has,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said earlier this month.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
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