Daily Rate Update: November 1st-5th

Thursday – November 4, 2021

Home borrowing costs fell this week and remain just above historic lows. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined five basis points to 3.09% with 0.7 in points and fees. The record low was 2.65% on January 7 of this year. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist said, “The housing market remains favorable for consumers, as rates remain below pre-pandemic levels and continue to support sustainable purchase and refinance opportunities.”

First-time unemployment claims fell to lows not seen since before the shutdowns began in late March 2020. At present, there are almost 11 million jobs available across the nation. The Labor Department reports that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell 14,000 to 269,000 for the week ended October 30, 2021. Continuing claims, or those receiving benefits for at least two weeks straight, fell to 2.1052 million from 2.239 million. The labor market should continue to improve with holiday hiring underway.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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Wednesday – November 3, 2021

Home borrowing costs declined in the latest week and remain historically low. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell six basis points to 3.240% with 0.34 in points for the week ending October 29, 2021. Within the report it showed that the Market Composite Index decreased 3.3%, the Refinance Index declined 4% and the Purchase Index saw a 2% loss. A spokesperson said, “Purchase activity continues to be held back by high prices and low for-sale inventory, but current applications levels still point to healthy housing demand. MBA is forecasting for a record $1.6 billion in purchase mortgage originations this year, and sustained demand leading to another record year in 2022.”

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting will adjourn today and the markets will be paying close attention. Tapering or the reduction in its purchasing of securities each month will be on the table to the tune of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in Mortgage Bonds while further tapering will be gradual. There is a zero percent chance of a rate hike to the short-term Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the rate in which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. The Fed’s monetary policy statement will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference is at 2:30.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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Tuesday – November 2, 2021

CoreLogic reports that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose 18% in September 2021 compared with September 2020. Monthly, prices were up 1.1% from September 2021 compared with August 2021. Looking ahead, CoreLogic is forecasting a 2% rise in prices from September 2021 to September 2022. “As we head into 2022, we expect some moderation in the current pattern of flight away from urban cores as the pandemic wanes,” said Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic. That’s some moderation from 18% to 2%. That forecast contrasts with the 16% increase that Goldman Sachs has reported.

The home forbearance rate continues to decline as the program has seen many borrowers come to an end of the 18-month period. The MBA reports that the total forbearance rate fell six basis points to 2.15% while the Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae rate fell to 0.97%. It is estimated that there are just over 1 million homeowners still in forbearance plans.
Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice-president and chief economist said, “With so many borrowers having reached the end of their 18-month forbearance term, we expect a steady pace of exits in November.”

The price for your Thanksgiving feast may be the most expensive in history due in part to supply constraints and shipping delays. It is estimated that the average cost for a full Thanksgiving dinner is to rise by 5% in 2021. Also, with the price of aluminum up, the popular pans have increased along with the price for cranberry sauce. The price for liquor has gone up and it’s not what’s in the bottle, but it is the rise in the bottle, corks and labels. “When you go to the grocery store and it feels more expensive, that’s because it is,” said Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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