It’s Just The Facts: March 2019

1. OWNERS AND RENTERS – The 110.7 million households that existed in the United States on 12/31/08 were split 68/32 between 74.7 million owners and 36.0 million renters.  The 122.5 million households in the United States on 12/31/18 were split 65/35 between 79.4 million owners and 43.1 million renters (source: Census Bureau). 

2. IT’S GETTNG BETTER ALL THE TIME – American banks repossessed 230,000 homes in 2018, 292,000 homes in 2017, 379,000 homes in 2016 and 450,000 homes in 2015 (source: ATTOM Data Solutions).    

3. MAESTRO – Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan turns 93 years old this Wednesday (3/06/19).  Greenspan was the Fed’s Chairman for 18.5 years beginning 8/11/87 through 1/31/06 (source: Federal Reserve).  

4. COMING SOON? – 10% of 281 economists surveyed in February 2019 believe the United States will be in a recession by 12/31/19.  42% of the group believe a recession will have started by 12/31/20 (source: National Association for Business Economics).        

5. PENT UP DEMAND – The increase in the number of “owner” households in the USA in the last 2 years almost matches the increase in the number of “owner” households in our country in the previous 14 years.  From the end of 2002 to the end of 2016, the number of “owner” households increased by +3.8 million to 75.7 million.  From the end of 2016 to the end of 2018, the number of “owner” households nationwide increased by +3.7 million to 79.4 million (source: Census Bureau).  

6. HOMES – The average single-family home in the USA increased in value +5.7% during 2018.  Home values in Idaho increased +11.9% (top state) while home values in North Dakota were flat (bottom state) (source: FHFA).   

7. RENTAL RESTRICTIONS – Oregon Governor Kate Brown signed legislation on 2/28/19 that makes Oregon the 1st US state to impose statewide rent controls.  The new law limits annual rent increases to “inflation plus 7%.”  New apartment construction is exempted from the restrictions for 15 years (source: Oregon Senate Bill 608).  

8. CONCENTRATED IN A FEW – The wealthiest 10% of the 122 million households nationwide own an estimated 84% of all domestic stock values (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).  

9. WAGE GAINS – The year-over-year increase in the average hourly earnings of all private sector workers was +3.4% in February 2019, i.e., wages of $27.66 per hour in February 2019 vs. wages of $26.75 per hour in February 2018.  That’s the largest year-over-year percentage increase reported in the private sector since April 2009 (source: Department of Labor). ]

10. WORTH IT? – The average college graduate with a bachelor’s degree will earn $2.8 million over his/her lifetime.  The average high school graduate with no additional higher education will earn $1.5 million over his/her lifetime (source: Center on Education and the Workforce).  

11. HOUSEHOLDS WITH MONEY – A household with a $1 million net worth ranks in the top 88% of households in America.  A household with a $4 million net worth ranks in the top 97% of households in America.  A household with an $11 million net worth ranks in the top 99% of households in America (source:   

12. WORK TO BE DONE – 3 of the top 4 occupations projected to create the greatest number of new jobs nationwide between 2016-2026 are in the health care industry – personal care aides (+777,600 new jobs), registered nurses (+438,100 new jobs) and home health aides (+431,200 new jobs) (source: Department of Labor).  

13. BARELY MOVED – The Fed began a rate-tightening cycle on 12/16/15 that has resulted in 9 rate hikes.  In the 39 months since the initial rate hike on 12/16/15 through last Friday 3/22/19, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased just 0.14 percentage points from 2.30% to 2.44% (source: Treasury Department).   

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide