Friday – April 1, 2022
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there were 431,000 jobs created in March, below the 490,000 expected. This is down from 750,000 in February which was revised up from 678,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.6%, the lowest since the 3.5% recorded in February 2020. Payrolls are still 1.6 million lower than February 2020. Average Hourly Earnings rose 5.6% year over year from 5.2% in February and above the 5.5% expected. The U6 number or total unemployed fell to 6.9% from 7.2% and from 10.7% in March 2021 while the Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% from 62.3%.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report on food prices. The findings show: The Consumer Price Index for all food increased 1.0% from January 2022 to February 2022, and food prices were 7.9% higher than in February 2021. The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.4% in February 2022 and was 6.8% higher than January 2021; and the food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 1.4% from January 2022 to February 2022 and was 8.6% higher than February 2021. In 2022, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase between 3.0% and 4.0%, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase between 5.5% and 6.5%. Price increases for food away from home are expected to exceed historical averages and the inflation rate in 2021.
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Thursday – March 31, 2022
Mortgage rates continued their upward trend this week due in part to rising inflation pressures. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.67% from 4.42% last week with 0.8 in points and fees. Last year this time the rate was 3.18%. The 15-year averaged 3.83%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist said, “Purchase demand has weakened modestly but has continued to outpace expectations. This is largely due to unmet demand from first-time homebuyers as well as a select few who had been waiting for rates to hit a cyclical low.”
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE, rose 5.4% year over year in March versus the 5.5% expected and up from 5.2% in January. That is the largest gain since 1983. Monthly, the Core rose 0.4%, inline and down from 0.5% in January. The bond markets digested the news and did give up some gains. Rounding out the data showed that personal incomes rose while spending declined. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at a low of 202,000.
The Jobs Report for March will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expectations are calling for a gain of 490,000 jobs after 678,000 were created in February for Non-Farm Payrolls. The report will also feature revisions to previous months’ jobs data as well as the hourly earnings data, the Labor Force Participation Rate and the U6 number or total unemployed. There are currently 11.3 million open job positions across the nation that are looking to be filled.
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Wednesday – March 30, 2022
Mortgage rates jumped last week to their highest level in more than three years for the week ending March 25, 2022, reports the MBA. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.80% from 4.50% in the previous week with 0.56 in points. It was the largest weekly increase since February of 2011 while the 30-year rate is the highest since December 2018. Within the data it showed that the Market Composite Index fell 6.8%, the Refinance Index decreased nearly 15% and is down 60% from the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index saw a 1% increase.
In economic news, March ADP Private Payrolls came in near estimates at 455,000 and down from 486,000 in February which was revised from 475,000. The final read on Q4 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slid to 6.9% from the second read of 7% and up from 2.3% in Q3 2021. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts a 0.9% GDP for Q1 2022, a significant drop. Also, the FHFA reports that house prices rose nationwide in January, up 1.6% from from the previous month and were up 18.2% from January 2021.
After recently hitting record highs, prices at the pumps have decreased and somewhat stabilized, but for how long asks motor club AAA. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline has fallen to $4.24 this week from the record high $4.33 seen in the beginning of March. This week’s price is one cent less than a week ago, 63 cents more than a month ago, and $1.38 more than a year ago. “The global oil market reflects the volatility caused by the war in Ukraine grinding onward,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson. “And with oil prices refusing to fall, the price at the pump is likewise meeting resistance at dropping further.”
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Tuesday – March 29, 2022
Home prices continued to increase in the latest of many monthly surveys due in part to low inventories of homes for sale on the market. The January S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 19.1% from January 202, up monthly from December 2021 to January 2022 by 1.4%. The National Index increased 19.2% annually and up monthly by 1.1%. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in January.
Consumer confidence rose modestly in March from February due in part to the strong labor market though higher prices are a concern. The Consumer Confidence Index increased to 107.2 this month from 105.7 in February. Within the report it showed that 57.2% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 53.5%, a new historical high. Also, expectations further with consumers citing rising prices, especially at the gas pump.
Job openings across the nation remained at extremely lofty levels doubling the size of the unemployed. The Labor Department reports that there were 11.3 job openings in the U.S. on the last business day in February which about five million more than those that are unemployed. There were 4.35 million resignations during the month signaling workers are finding it easy to secure another position. The data is collected from the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary).
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Monday – March 28, 2022
Redfin reports that condo prices rose to a record high $319,000 in February as buyers look for more affordable dwellings as single-family home prices remain lofty. That’s up nearly 14.6% from a year ago and up 22.7% from February 2020. Single-family home prices jumped to a record $406,000 last month, up 15.9% year over year and up 34.9% from February 2020. A Redfin spokesperson said, “Rising prices are pushing single-family homes out of reach for a lot of buyers, so condos are affordable in comparison.”
With housing prices at or near record highs, Americans are looking to relocate to more affordable areas in record numbers. Almost one-third of Redfin.com users were looking to relocate in January and February, up from 31.5% in Q1 2021 and up 26% from Q1 2019, before the shutdowns began. Miami was the first destination of choice for homebuyers followed by Phoenix and Tampa, Florida. The emergence of remote working is a key factor in the more affordable moves around the nation.
Key labor market reports will be released this week revealing the job growth in March. ADP Private Payrolls will be released on Wednesday and the Jobs Report on Friday. On Thursday, the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation, the Core PCE, will be reported. The week also features the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and Personal Income and Spending.
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