- THEY MAY NEVER STOP – The Federal Reserve has been buying $120 billion of federal debt per month since mid-March 2020, resulting in our nation’s central bank buying 76% of all the federal debt that has been issued during the pandemic (source: Federal Reserve).
- BEING CAUTIOUS – The personal savings rate in the US was a record 33.8% in April 2020 as Americans reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The personal savings rate in the US was 9.4% in June 2021. Before the pandemic, the personal savings rate was above 10% during just 1 month since 1993. The personal savings rate is defined as “savings” (i.e., after-tax income less consumption spending) divided by after-tax income (source: Department of Commerce).
- HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS – The number of American workers in “leisure and hospitality” was 16.3 million as of 2/29/20, dropped to 8.6 million as of 4/30/20, and now has rebounded to 15.8 million as of 7/31/21 (source: Department of Labor).
- NEED HELP – 43% of Americans under age 35 receive financial help from their parents or other family members when they purchase a home, e.g., money used for a down payment (source: Legal & General).
- HOME BUILDING – 563,400 single family homes began construction during the first half of 2021, the largest “January-to-June” total in the US since the first half of 2007 or 14 years earlier (source: Census Bureau).
- BIGGEST PIECE – 70% of total household debt nationwide is mortgage debt as of 6/30/21, i.e., $10.44 trillion of mortgage debt out of $14.96 trillion of total household debt (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
- PARTLY EXTENDED – The first eviction moratorium due to the pandemic was issued by the Department of Housing and Urban Development on 3/18/20 for 60 days, i.e., to 5/17/20. Believing that renters needed additional financial help, the original moratorium was extended 7 times, ultimately pushing the deadline to 7/31/21. An 11th hour effort by the White House on Tuesday 8/03/21 extended the deadline an 8th time (to 10/03/21), however the extension is limited to just those areas in the US where COVID infections have continued to rise (source: HUD).
- WILL IT BE ABOVE AVERAGE? – The average change that American homeowners are anticipating in the value of their primary residences over the upcoming 12-months is a gain of +5.1%, more than the actual gain of +4.1% per year that has been achieved over the last 20-years through 4/30/21 (source: July 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey, Federal Housing Finance Agency).
- EXPENSIVE STATES – The top 3 US states for “total debt balance per capita,” i.e., per person, as of 6/30/21 were California, New Jersey and Arizona (source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel).
- CALM BEFORE THE STORM? Banks repossessed 230,305 homes in calendar year 2018. Banks repossessed 143,955 homes in calendar year 2019. Banks repossessed 50,238 homes in calendar year 2020. Through 7/31/21, banks had repossessed just 12,148 homes YTD (source: Attom Data Solutions).
- MOVE HERE – 44 US cities are currently offering cash incentives to attract workers to move to their cities, including Augusta, ME ($15,660), Stillwater, OK ($7,500) and French Lick, IN ($5,000) (source: MakeMyMove.com).
- BOOM TOWN – Phoenix was the 99th largest US city in 1950 (106,818 people). Phoenix is the 5th largest US city today (1.61 million people), per the 2020 US census (source: Census Bureau).
- JUST SPEND THE MONEY – The Treasury Department distributed $15 billion in July 2021 and has distributed another $15 billion this month (through Friday 8/13/21) per the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) that was part of the “American Rescue Plan Act” that was signed into law by President Joe Biden on 3/11/21. The payments are currently scheduled to continue through the end of 2021 (source: American Rescue Plan Act).
- AVERAGE PER MONTH – The average Social Security retirement benefit is $1,503 per month. The average “food stamp” benefit (SNAP) is $157 per month per person (source: BTN Research).
- BRAND NEW HOMES – The median sales price of a new home sold in the USA in June 2021 was $390,500, an all-time record high both on a nominal basis and on an inflation-adjusted basis. The old nominal record was $374,400 in April 2021. The old inflation-adjusted record was $345,800 in May 2017, equal to $383,898 in today’s dollars (source: Census Bureau).
- GOOD LUCK – A renter household that qualifies for rental aid assistance (see prior bullet) receives 12 months of rent and utility assistance, extended to 18 months for the most vulnerable households (source: ERAP).
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
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