Daily Rate Update: June 18th-22nd

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Friday – June 22, 2018 

Home affordability in the first quarter of 2018 hit its lowest level since the third quarter of 2008 due in part to low inventories of homes for sale on the market along with rising mortgage rates. ATTOM Data Solutions reports that its Home Affordability Index fell to 95 from 102 in the first three months of 2018. Index scores above 100 indicate more affordability, below 100 indicates less affordability.

There are no economic reports due for release today while geopolitical headlines are scarce. With summer officially underway, the Friday summer doldrums look to be setting in causing low volume trading. Looking out to next week, the Treasury will sell a total of $100B in Treasury Notes with $34B 2s on Tuesday, $36B 5s on Wednesday and $30B 7s on Thursday. The added supply could weigh on Bond prices given the auction results.

In addition, economic data ramps up next week as traders, investors and members of the Federal Reserve will receive reports that cover a big chunk of the U.S. economy. The closely watched Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, will be released next week. Inflation talk has been in the news for several months now and this week the Core PCE will be closely watched.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Thursday – June 21, 2018

Mortgage rates edged lower over the past week and have now declined in three of the past four weeks. After a sharp run-up in the early part of 2018, mortgage rates have stabilized over the last three months, with only a modest uptick since March. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell five basis points in the latest week to 4.57% with an average 0.50 in points and fees.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region declined in June from May, though all the broad indicators remained positive. The June Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell 15 points from May to 19.9 and below the 27 expected. The new orders index and general activity fell notably. Expectations for the next six months continued to moderate but remain positive overall. The survey went on to reveal that firms continued to report overall increases in employment.

The National Association of Manufacturers released the results of the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2018. The survey showed that 95.1% of manufacturers have positive outlooks for their companies, an all-time in the survey’s 20-year history following the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Within the report it showed all-time highs for projected employment growth and capital spending.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Wednesday – June 20, 2018

The National Association of REALTORS® reported on Wednesday that Existing Home Sales declined for the second straight month in May. Existing Home Sales were down slightly by 0.4% from April to an annual rate of 5.43 million annualized units, below the 5.55 million expected. From May 2017 to May 2018, Existing Home Sales were down 3%. While sales rose in the Northeast in May, they fell in the Midwest, West and South. Inventories of homes for sale on the market remain low with a 4.1-month supply, below the 6 months seen as normal.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, said, “Inventory coming on the market during this spring’s buying season was not even close enough to satisfy demand.” A solid economy and job market should be generating a much stronger sales pace than what has been seen so far this year. “Closings were down in a majority of the country last month and declined on an annual basis in each major region,” he said. “Incredibly low supply continues to be the primary impediment to more sales, but there’s no question the combination of higher prices and mortgage rates are pinching the budgets of prospective buyers, and ultimately keeping some from reaching the market.”

Mortgage rates remained unchanged in the latest week, as reported by the Mortgage bankers Association (MBA). The MBA reports that the 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage remained at 4.83% (0.48 point), while jumbo rates increased by five basis points to 4.79% (0.36 point), while FHA rates were near unchanged at 4.82% (0.84 point). The refinance index rose 6%, while the purchase index increased 4% from a week earlier.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Tuesday – June 19, 2018

The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that new home construction surged in May to a near 11-year high led by both single- and multi-family dwellings. Housing Starts rose 5% in May from April to an annual rate of 1.350 million units, above the 1.323 million expected. From May 2017 to May 2018, Housing Starts increased a whopping 20.3%. Total Housing Starts fell in the Northeast, South and West, but soared in the Midwest month over month from April to May.

Single-family starts, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, rose 3.9% from April to May to an annual rate of 936,000 units and were up 18.3% annually. Multi-family dwellings rose 11.3% monthly and jumped 27.4% annually. However, future new construction could ease a bit as Building Permits fell 4.6% monthly after declining in April.

U.S. Stocks are lower once again today as the trade issues between the U.S. and China intensify. On top of the previous tariffs, President Trump is looking to impose tariffs on an additional $200B worth of imports from China. The closely watched Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 400 points in early trading before somewhat recouping some of those losses. The Dow is now in negative territory for the year.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Monday – June 18, 2018

The monthly collection of jobs data in the United States is a combination of science and art. Sixty-thousand American households are asked to complete employment surveys by the 12th of the month. The employment status of the individuals in those 60,000 households is then extrapolated to project national figures for our country’s actual 120 million households, i.e., just 1 out of every 2,000 households provided the data to calculate our country’s May 2018 jobless rate of 3.8%.

Renewed trade issues between the U.S. and China coupled with rising political tensions in Germany are pushing U.S. Stocks lower to begin the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 222 points in early week trading to 24,869. Stocks have come under some pressure in 2018 on trade worries, geoplolitical tensions in Europe, the threat is rising U.S. interst rates along with inflation pressures.

Home builder confidence slipped a bit in June due in part to rising lumber prices though it remains on solid footing. The National Association of Home Builders reports that its Housing market Index fell two points in June to 68, just below the 70 expected. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. “Builders are optimistic about housing market conditions as consumer demand continues to grow,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp