Mortgage in America

Daily Rate Update: June 29th – July 3rd

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Wednesday – July 1, 2020

The labor markets continue to hear positive news as many states have reopened and Americans slowly return to work. ADP Private Payrolls rose by 2.37 million in June versus the 3.5 million expected. The May number was revised higher to a gain of 3.065 million from the 2.76 million loss. Gains were seen across the board in small, medium and large businesses. Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute said, “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses.”

Economic data continues to stream in positive with the manufacturing sector rebounding from March and April’s dismal readings. The national ISM Manufacturing Index moved into expansion territory registering 52.6 in June from 43.1 in May. The 9.5 point increase the largest since August 1980. The expansion/contraction line is 50. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 reported growth in June.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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Tuesday – June 30, 2020

Consumer confidence continues to rebound across the nation as states reopen and begin the process of getting back to business. The Conference Board reports that its Consumer Confidence Index surged in June to 98.1 from 85.9 in May. In addition, the Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions and the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions both had big increases. Lynn Franco from the Conference Board said, “It’s too soon to say that consumers have turned the corner and are ready to begin spending at pre-pandemic levels.”

House price gains were solid in April despite being in the midst of a pandemic induced shutdown. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 4% in April 2020 compared to April 2019, up 0.3% month-over-month from March to April. The National Index saw a 4.7% gain and rose 1.1% monthly. A spokesperson said the data continued to be remarkably stable. this number bodes well for the future as prices managed to increase during the darkest days of COVID.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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Monday – June 29, 2020

Pent-up demand and low mortgage rates continue to fuel the housing sector after the pandemic shutdown state economies in March and April as well as the early part of May. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) reports that Pending Home Sales surged by 44% in May from April. It was the highest month-over-month gain since the NAR began tracking the series in 2001. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said, “This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”

The U.S. financial markets will be on a holiday schedule this week with the observance of Independence Day. The U.S. bond markets will close early on Thursday at 2:00 p.m. ET and all financial markets will be closed on Friday for the 4th. Drivers who are taking to the road will see the lowest gas prices in recent memory. The current national average for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.17 up four cents in the past week.

Coronavirus cases continue to rise in spots across the country though bond prices are flat to lower while stocks rebound on news that additional QE will be undertaken by Germany and the UK. The central bank “punchbowls” are flowing around the world. In addition, Boeing’s 737 Max could be set to lift off as certification flights are beginning which is fueling shares of the aerospace company. Coronavirus cases continue to rise as Texas, Florida and Arizona have partially re closed while cases here in the U.S. have topped 2 million. The markets will continue to respond to the virus headlines.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide 

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