Daily Rate Update: November 18th-22nd

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Friday – November 22, 2019

All US markets are closed next Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the bond markets close early at 2:00 p.m. ET while stocks close at 1:00 p.m. ET. Next Friday is typically one of the lowest trading volume days of the year. This means next Friday could have market volatility if big news hits along with low trading volume, which exaggerates price moves.

Consumer Sentiment rose in November rose to a four month high due in part to strong employment, record high stock prices and prospects of a US-China trade deal. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 96.8 in November from 95.5 in October. Within the report it showed that the expectations index increased. With the US in its longest economic expansion period in history, consumers are helping to fuel the economy with solid consumer spending. The holiday shopping season should be good for retailers.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Thursday – November 21, 2019

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region picked up this month which is good news for the sector given the recent slowdown due to the trade issues between China and the US. The Philadelphia Fed Index jumped 5 points in November to 10.4 and above the 5.5 expected. Most firms reported overall increases this month in manufacturing employment this month. In conclusion, firms remain generally optimistic on the economy.

The National Association of REALTORS reports that Existing Home Sales rose 2% in October from November to an annual rate of 5.46 million units, near expectations. Sales were also up 4.6% from a year ago. Across the nation, the Midwest and the South saw growth with the Northeast and the West both reporting a drop in sales. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said, “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.”

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Wednesday – November 20, 2019

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that the Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell 2.2% in the week ending November 15, 2019. The Refinance Index decreased by 8% while the Purchase Index rose 7%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was essentially unchanged at 3.99% with 0.33 points up from around 3.50% in early September. Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting said, “There may be signs that housing inventory is starting to meaningfully rise, which will help with affordability and provide more choices for potential homebuyers.”

The US Senate voted in the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on Tuesday night throwing support behind the Hong Kong protesters. This is adding escalating the US-China trade tensions. The geopolitical headlines are weighing on US stocks this morning as the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ trade near all-time highs. Mortgage Bond prices are flat while Treasuries push higher, yields lower. The closely watched S&P 500 is up a whopping 25% in 2019 due in part to an expanding economy, strong employment and low inflation.

Motor club AAA is reporting that more than 55 million travelers are expected to kick off the holiday season with a trip of 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving. This will be the second-highest number since tracking began in 2000. This year there is expected to be a 2.9% increase in travelers or 1.6 million people more than in 2018. Wednesday before Thanksgiving is expected to be the worst travel period nationally. “With record levels of travelers, and persistent population growth in the country’s major metropolitan areas, drivers must prepare for major delays,” said Trevor Reed, transportation analyst at INRIX, a global transportation analytics company.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Tuesday – November 19, 2019

October Housing Starts rose 4% from September to an annual rate of 1.314 million units, above the 1.3 million expected while September was revised higher. Single-family starts rose for the fifth straight month. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, jumped 5% to an annual rate of 1.461 million, above estimates while September was also revised higher. Low rates and a strong job market are key metrics for the housing market.

Mortgage applications for new home purchases surged year over year and rose month over month as the new home purchase market continues to be strong. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that new home purchase applications jumped nearly 32% from a year and were up 9% from September to October. The positive numbers reinforce that a strong job market and low rates continue to support the housing market.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp


Monday – November 18, 2019

Single-family home builders reported a positive environment in November due in part to low mortgage rates and continued job growth here in the US. The National Association of Home Builders said its Housing Market Index fell one point to 70 this month from 71 in October. This time last year the number stood at 60. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Builders do see headwinds from lot shortages, affordability headwinds along with a lack of labor and regulatory restraints.

Fannie Mae released its November Economic and Housing Outlook revealing that housing is expected to remain supportive through the first half of next year. However, persistent supply and affordability constraints continue to hold back household formation, inhibiting housing market activity. Consumer spending is expected to remain the primary driver of economic growth for the forecast horizon as we head into the all-important holiday shopping season. Fannie Mae is forecasting near 2% economic growth in 2020. “Even as global uncertainties mount, we continue to expect the domestic economy to produce solid, if not spectacular, growth,” said Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan.

US stocks begin the week modestly lower after conflicting US-China trade headlines hit the wires the past few days. Over the weekend it was reported that there was a phone call on Saturday between high-level officials from both sides only to be met with Beijing now pessimistic over a trade due in part to the reluctance of the US to roll back tariffs. In addition, the Chinese may be more willing to concentrate on propping up its economy, a Chinese government source told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon, by way of this morning’s announcement of new stimulus by China’s central bank.

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide

-CHECK US OUT ON SOCIAL-

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

LinkedIn

Yelp